Good morning bloggers,

11:30 AM Update:

Wow! What a morning. This band of snow is just now centering over the Kansas/Missouri state line for a couple more hours.  Here is a few hours ago, while I was preparing for the 10 AM show:

And, here is now, just after I got home and I am about to walk the dogs. We are at around 1″ on the Plaza at the moment with snow coming down at a pretty good clip:

This is a pretty heavy band of snow on the north side of the storm.  It is shifting east at around 15 mph, which means two to three more hours of significant snowfall.  The roads are snow packed and hazardous.  Be careful.

Previous entry below:

Whew! What a day it was on Saturday.  Kansas City had rain, freezing rain, sleet, freezing drizzle, thunderstorms with rain, a thunderstorm with freezing rain, a thunderstorm with sleet, wind, a cold blast, and now snow.  The roads are horrible out there, especially the untreated ones.  It is a slick mess this morning, and now the comma head of the storm is forming with a band of snow near the state line.  Exactly where this lines up will decide if we get 1, 2, 3, or 4 inches of snow.  Yes, there is still a chance of a 4 inch band most likely just east of KC.  I never budged from the forecast, and even if we get a bit under my 3-6 inch snowfall forecast, if one inch or two does accumulate this morning into this afternoon, I do not consider this a busted forecast.  A busted forecast would be one that had a dusting to no snow at all on top of what we have.   This storm produced about what we predicted.   Now, it isn’t over yet.   Here is the HRRR that came out while I was writing this:

This same model just showed this 1-2 inch band right over KC.  This is likely going to  happen as I can see evidence of this on radar.  Comma heads sometimes way over produce, and this is how a 4″ band is possible, and sometimes they under produce.  We will know which version we are getting in a few hours.

There is a line of intense to severe thunderstorms continuing to track east over the southeastern USA as well.

I will try to finish up the blog later this morning.  Let’s track this together, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great Saturday.  I am heading to Boston, MA for the 100th Anniversary AMS conference.  I will be checking in from there.  Right now, it is on into 41 Action News to track this developing band of snow.

Gary

Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

More posts by Gary Lezak

Join the discussion 97 Comments

  • Avatar Grizzle says:

    Come on comma head!!! 🤞🏻

  • Avatar Steve Huff says:

    Thank you, Gary, for all you do. It has been quite an interesting storm, and your interactions with others here and on FB live just add to my enjoyment of it!

    • Avatar Hockeynut69 says:

      Whether it produces 1,2, or 6 inches, this storm produced a welcomed precipitation. I had an inch and a half of rain. In January. That is amazing! The snow will just add a bit more. My initial forecast on Monday was 3-5”. It may happen or it may not, but I am thankful for the rain. You can’t grade a test while a person is still taking it, so don’t grade a storm until the storm is finished. Meanwhile, just enjoy the amazing storm we just had and are having. As quiet as things were, this was exciting to watch and experience.

  • Avatar Josh Honas says:

    What a day it was on Friday.*

  • Avatar Three7s says:

    Maybe not to you, but 3-6 inches of snow to me is a pretty significant snowstorm, 1-2 inches isn’t even close. That’s a bust in my mind.

    • Avatar Urbanity says:

      We had some light rain and icing out here west of Salina. I’m surprised the trees are not shining in the sun this morning because it was 27 degrees and raining yesterday. I guess the wind must have dried them off. So onto the next weather maker, not sure where this one fit the LRC.

  • Avatar Jimmy Tinner says:

    Sorry with all the hype, this was a bust!!

  • Avatar Joseph Geist says:

    I’m going to copy Bill from Washington Creek’s line, “I’m ust an amateur at this,” but it sure looks to me like the radar is filling in and intensifying nicely. I think Gary has been dragged along on this roller coaster and has lost sight of things. Does it look like 6 inches of snow? No, probably not, but at my location here in South OP I’m still expecting 3-4 inches based on what I’m seeing. Not a blown forecast in my book!

    • Avatar Jimmy Tinner says:

      Precip – yes! Snow – no…that’s the difference….that’s why it is a bust. We are going to be VERY lucky to get two inches…

  • Avatar Jack Lind says:

    Good morning everyone! The radar trends actually give me some hope! Personally, 2 days ago, I thought there really was a decent chance for a major winter storm of 6-10 inches because the euro was really pointing in that direction, and I trusted it, but alas, that will not happen in KC. BUT, you can see exactly where the comma head is going to form–right over the city. You can also see right where that northwest cut is going to be. The rap really has this thing get its act together just south and east of the city with a 6-7 inch bullseye which will happen if the rap is right. I think for the city we will see a lot of 2-3 inch totals with some 4 inch totals on the southeast side of the city. This is not for certain though! To me, I think there is higher likelihood of the city seeing 5 inches than a dusting, but that does not mean I think that will happen! I do not think this will bust based on the latest radar trends. Let’s track this!!

    Jack

  • Avatar Mr. Pete says:

    The radar just doesn’t look impressive this AM?

  • Avatar Jack Lind says:

    Right near the Kansas and Oklahoma border you can see a little spin.. just north and west of this will get the most snow. If it really strengthens it may form into its own little upper low and that would really increase the totals.

  • Avatar MMike says:

    Bust?

    This thing is developing beautifully west of here. Much farther west then the HRRR has it, I think KC is in a good spot for some good snowfall here soon. We’ll see where the heavy snow bands go, but………………………………….

    It’s not over!

    We’ll grade when it completes.

  • Avatar John says:

    I am hoping the radar continues its trend of intensifying that snow band right on top of and to the west of the city. Gives me hope that we may sneak out 3″ in most of the metro, but if we only get 1 or 2″ that seems like a busted forecast to me. You have been saying since Thursday that you expected 3-6″ of snow out of this system, but if only 1 or 2″ fall then that is 33% of your forecasted total. Like I said though radar appears to be our friend, at the moment, but only if the band travels SW to NE, if it goes straight W to E then we end up with the low end totals.

  • Avatar Joshua in Shawnee says:

    Gary was right about this stationary band that he said would set up at 8am.

  • Avatar Drew Blasi says:

    Radar has some nice heavy bands if you get lucky and sit under one for a couple hours you could get 2-3 inches real quick

  • Avatar Joshua in Shawnee says:

    Anyone else notice on radar the incredibly heavy snow down by Dallas?

  • Avatar Fred Smith says:

    While I don’t think this Is WSW material, it is nice to get a little snow.

    I do think the hype with this storm was way over done, from my perspective. There were concerning trends of less snow beginning Thursday evening, yet there was a continued parroting of possible high snow amounts…even when the models trends didn’t support the “big” snow forecast. Gary contributed to this by doing his FB live showing the 4 modeled amounts and leading the viewer to hope or not hope for the huge amounts the NAM and Euro were predicting. That was a silly move, in my opinion.

    Further and I know this maybe an unpopular opinion…but the consistent posting of snowfall maps by the amateur weather forecasters on the blog also contributes to the hype machine.

    Regular everyday people come here to get their weather information…they look at Gary to give them the straight answer…and when they scroll through the comments and someone has posted a snowfall map showing 14 inches over KC…that regular everyday person buys into that map and begins the process of telling everyone. In fact, they often start the conversation by saying…”Gary is saying we are going to get 14 inches of snow.” When, in actuality, some random guy/gal posted a map and acted like they know what they are talking about.

    Now, yes, this is a weather blog. And yes, people can post what they want. And, no, I’m not saying you shouldn’t post maps. But, perhaps we should just be more cautious on how we disseminate information to those around us? Maybe we should also understand that each model is flawed and that often, with weather…particularly a winter storm, we just don’t know what it may end up doing. And sometimes, the best forecast is to just look out the window.

    • Avatar Drew Blasi says:

      Who cares if it was over hyped I mean it’s not that big of a deal it’s fun to look at the weather models with a lot of snow.

    • Avatar Brian Borjas says:

      “Regular everyday people come here to get their weather information” Fred you could not be more wrong. Everyday people use their phone apps and television and radio stations to tell them what the weather is going to be like. Gary among other meteorologists did not over hype this storm on TV or radio. They provided what could happen and then provided their educated guess with their forecast. This medium as well as Joe Lauria’s blog allows us look beyond the forecast that “everyday people” get.

    • Avatar Jason Anderson says:

      Respectfully, I don’t believe regular everyday people frequent weather blogs that require user registration. They watch the news broadcasts, or perhaps check NWS. We’re the crazy ones that visit pages like this like it’s a second job.

      The whole purpose of NWS warnings and advisories are to inform the public about risks. I personally will never be grumpy about a weather advisory that didn’t fully materialize because some weather component shifted 50 miles this way or that. And I wouldn’t fault Gary (or other meteorologists) for giving NWS analyses some weight.

      • Avatar Fred Smith says:

        I appreciate your comments. In thinking more about it…I should have phrased it: People who frequent this weather blog and the KSHB blog, they read posts made by bloggers that include weather maps and they choose to inform their friends and neighbors about the impending storm. And then a vicious game of telephone can ensue….without anyone actually being sure the information posted is correct.

        And once possibly poor information hits social media, there’s not much anyone can do to dispel the hype regarding snow amounts.

        It’s the nature of our society. Make posts without a full understanding of how something works. And watch “fake news” like 14 inch snow storms spread like wildfire.

        Anyways, back to watching the snow and thinking it’s 5 o’clock somewhere!

  • Avatar CJ Mac says:

    If the metro gets anywhere close to 3”, this is not a bust. Were snow lovers, wanting more? Sure. It will be interesting to watch the radar and see how this keeps developing.

  • Avatar Bill in Lawrence says:

    Gary:

    Happy Saturday morning to you and all the wonderful 20/20 bloggers!!! Snowing at a pretty good clip here at the moment.

    This is going to be interesting to track. Currently it looks like the heaviest snow bands are between Wichita and Winfield Kansas which as Jack has said is NW of the spin in far NE Oklahoma. The real question is where will that spin track? Will it head NE towards Columbia or shoot more due east? I think last night’s guidance had it shooting more due east but with the front where it is it may well head more NE. As has been stated, the comma head is really developing nicely and is a good 40 miles west of the HRR posted by Gary …the question is where does it actually track….I am about 10 miles SW of Lawrence so if it does take the NE track I will be in good shape…if it goes more east I will just get clipped. Of course as I always say, I’m just a hobbyist so not sure if on the right track or not. Interesting times for sure!!

    I have to respectfully argue that this storm has not been a bust nor has the forecast. I have picked up 1 inch of rain; .15 of ice; 1 inch of sleet; and now if all tracks right 2-3 inches of snow….not sure what more one can ask of from a storm in this part of the country and it fits Gary’s forecast very well….I may be off by 1 inch on the snow fall….that’s what .10 of liquid precip??? Many will disagree with me and that is fine but this is not a bust nor has it gone poof!! When this is all said and done I will be sitting at around 11 inches of frozen precip for the season and close to two inches of liquid precip for this LRC….not bad at all!!!!

    Have a great day everyone….I will be listening to every Rush album today is remembrance of Neil Peart!!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Avatar Jack Lind says:

      Bill,

      I always really enjoy reading your comments. I think you have wonderful analysis!! Hopefully the comma head can intensify just a bit more… we want the spin to come as close to us as possible! Thanks again for your input on this blog!

      Jack

      • Avatar Bill in Lawrence says:

        Jack:

        Thanks so much for the kind words…they are greatly appreciated!!!

        I very much enjoy your comments as well; your comments on this storm were fantastic!!! I especially enjoyed the discussion of looking at the qpf….thanks so much!!! 🙂

        Good luck with classes this semester!!!

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  • Avatar Stl78 (winona,MN) says:

    Not sure how u can judge a storm that is even over yet! Though im not in the path of this storm i enjoy tracking its progress and i would advise everyone be patient and enjoy todays snow. I said 2 days ago 3 to 6 was my early guess and through the model rollercoaster i stayed firm with my guess. Sit back watch the snow and enjoy it! Its a Saturday with snow on the way and playoff football….ENJOY IT!!

    • Avatar Bill in Lawrence says:

      Stl78:

      Excellent advice sir!!!! It is snowing and it is 19 degrees outside with strong gusty NW winds…I was outside for about two hours earlier this morning checking my neighbor’s house and the property for fallen trees…..for the 39th Parallel it doesn’t get much more winter like than this!!!!!

      Hope all is well with you!!

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Avatar Grizzle says:

      I’m loving it!! Looks great outside, and the radar keeps growing!

    • Avatar Joseph Geist says:

      Bill, I totally agree! The snow has just started to fall here in South OP. It’s been about 15 mins of steady snow, the grass is starting to disappear. The ride is far from over!

  • Avatar Bill in Lawrence says:

    Just me again!!!

    Just a random hobbyist observation…it looks like on radar that the snow band is indeed moving more north east than east. Also looking at the surface charts the temp in Saint Louis is around 38 while Columbia is around 28….I think that shows that upper level low will track between say Columbia and just south of Jefferson City towards Saint Louis which is a much more NE track than last night’s guidance….

    As I said above, it is a winter’s morning here for sure…snowing moderately with fairly low visibilities and gusty winds….living on the 39th parallel as a winter weather lover you really can’t ask for more!!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  • Avatar Laura Phelps says:

    8:50 big flakes coming down near 119th and 69 highway!

  • Avatar Weatherby Tom says:

    Underneath a good snow band now, was a little sceptical, but radar looking good now for a few good inches

  • Avatar Rodney Davis says:

    I feel so far this winter the American GFS has been more accurate than the European & if that happens with this storm we should see 2 to 4 inches in the Columbia area by this evening which is what NWS is forecasting. Speaking of the American GFS if this is even remotely close snow lovers can rejoice, look at the amount of snow it’s putting out through January 27th. We are getting ready to enter into the more active period of the LRC cycling pattern as we go later in January into February. If we can get the AO to drop down to neutral or even go negative with some blocking we could see a big daddy snowstorm or two.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020011106&fh=6

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

  • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

    Just me or are we looking at a nice thick band right behind this one ? Radar growth and filling seems to be doing well

  • Avatar CJ Mac says:

    There are a number of holes in the radar. In Grain Valley, we are in one now. If this trend continues, this could lower total amounts.

  • Avatar Kaden Huber says:

    Does anyone have any good radar sites?

    • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

      RadarScope is 10 bucks and is great. Worth it if you enjoy watching these things form in real time

  • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

    Frustrating these things always take heavy bands way further south than expected. Gotta stop jinxing the Northland lol

  • Avatar Someweatherdude says:

    This was another good reminder of how useless the models are for anything other than a general idea of what the general weather will be in a general region for the next few days. If there is any real weather happening, trying to use the models to forecast it for a specific location is an exercise in futility. Especially more than about 3 days out. As recently as yesterday morning the NAM model had the snow band from the second wave primarily northwest of KC with a ton of snow. Now it has it primarily east of the city, and much lower totals. Even the Euro (supposedly the best one) went back and forth, and never really settled on the right solution. I get caught up in the models just like everyone else. But other than being able to say that there will be some amount of snow somewhere in the midwest, they weren’t much use.

  • Avatar Jimmy Tinner says:

    Precip – yes! Snow – no…that’s the difference….that’s why it is a bust. We are going to be VERY lucky to get two inches…

  • Avatar Someweatherdude says:

    At this point, I’m just watching the snow instead of the radar or models. What happens, happens.

  • Avatar Drew Blasi says:

    honestly if the radar sticks together and keeps growing on us i could easily see places getting 3-4 inches

  • Avatar Jeffrey Coomes says:

    Hello from Wichita. Well we got over a inch of rain which we needed (1.14). Maybe got half inch of snow this morning seem most of it went just east of us. I would of loved more snow but getting over a inch of rain was great.

    • Avatar Roger Stull says:

      0.28 inches of rain/freezing rain in Hutchinson. No sleet or snow to speak of again. Sitting at 1.6 inches of snow for the season.

  • Avatar Snow Miser says:

    Meh, typical KC snowfall, it looks like.

  • Avatar MIkeOP says:

    Good morning!
    Total snowfall so far is 1/2” at 143rd and Metcalf and a little over an 1” of rain yesterday. Go Chiefs!

  • Avatar Weatherby Tom says:

    Snowfall near an inch here now, however, some sleet and graupel mixing in, and cutting into totals

  • Avatar Jeanna Vossmer says:

    It is snowing good here in Lansing,Ks!! Huge flakes coming down!

  • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

    Last band moving over right now 152 and Platte. There’s a good heavy band likely going for Springfield area which is what I’m assuming is going to carry the 3-5 inch totals. That SE track came to fruition. Still enjoyable and, interesting nevertheless.

  • Avatar Farmgirl says:

    Hollywood movie type snow in La Cygne. Big, fluffy flakes that accumulate quickly. Looks like we will get 3 to 4 inches if it keeps up at this rate.

  • Avatar Blue Flash says:

    Upper level low over Ottawa KS? It looks like a little bit of a curl on radar.

  • Avatar Robyn Anderson says:

    The fact that precise snow locations and amounts are so difficult to predict adds to its wonderful allure. We have a nice blanket of snow on the northwest side of Parkville with strong flurries falling at 12:15 pm. … My two cents … the forecasting this week was NOT a bust or overhyped. Gary kept us informed of the best information that he had all along the way, and articulated his thoughts/concerns about possible variances, and what more can anyone expect? I appreciate having this blog to read the background data and what-ifs from all of you weather enthusiasts. It makes the anticipation even more fun. Stay safe, everyone.

  • Avatar Three7s says:

    Radar trends are REALLY weakening over the area and I can even see the sun dimmed in the clouds. About an inch for me here in Independence.

  • Avatar Samuel Jeffers says:

    I havent measured but easily approaching 4 inches around Platte City.

    • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

      152 and PLatte Purchase (15 mins away from you) is not even close to 4 inches, we didnt even hit 1 inch here.

      • Avatar John says:

        I live just on the other side of 169 Highway and we are approaching 3″ in this area. This band of snow will not quit still snowing moderately at 2:15. Sun s shining through the clouds though, so I figure the snow is just about done here.

  • Avatar Dave Smart says:

    Big time poof in Knob Noster. We have more ice/sleet than anything

    • Avatar Glenn Wolters says:

      Yes about 4 inches in Platte City by Riverview patk

    • Avatar Adam Taylor says:

      I don’t understand how that’s a proof. Really the storm and moisture were there, the commahead even happened. The storm was powerful. No there wasn’t 10 inches of snow everywhere but Gary called for 3-5 and that’s what I received out south and my mother told me she thought it looked like 3-4 around Parkville. I’d say this forecast was nailed.

  • Avatar Bill in Lawrence says:

    Happy Saturday afternoon everyone!!

    Snow tapering down now here SW of Lawrence….we have received around 3 inches….absolutely gorgeous snow!!!! Been outside most of the morning picking up limbs and getting ice melt on the road and drive…….as someone who does enjoy winter weather it has been an amazing morning!!! Totals for this storm…1 inch of rain; .15 of ice; .5 of sleet and 3 inches of snow……Lawrence was very much impacted by this storm!!!

    About to get a little grading done and then out to plow the road and drive…..thanks again Gary for all of the updates and providing this great place to discuss the weather….it is so very much appreciated!!!

    Have a great Saturday everyone…

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Avatar Andrew H says:

      !!!!!

    • Avatar Adam Taylor says:

      Sounds about what it was like in Gardner. My work shoes are ruined. It was raining so hard yesterday afternoon that a walk from the store to my car left me drenched. There were torrents of water running through paved areas like raging rivers. Once I got home I stepped out of my car into probably 6 inches of fast moving water. Just soaked. I didn’t even try to stay dry, it wasn’t possible and the rain fell for a solid hour. Guess I’m going shoe shopping tomorrow. I’d be interested in knowing how much rain fell yesterday.

  • Avatar Drew Blasi says:

    Got around 2 or 3 inches in OP pretty snow

  • Avatar Zach Kumke says:

    Storm starting to wind down in Johnson County. Got 3 1/4th inches of snow so far with light snow ending.

  • Avatar Josh Honas says:

    Around 2″ in southwest Olathe. I would say that the local meteorologists did a great job with this storm. Considering we were 66 degrees, yesterday heavy thunderstorms, hail, lightning, freezing rain, sleet, snow, etc. This storm was SO much more complex than the snowstorm that hit us in Mid December. So for the record I have recorded 11″ of snow for the winter, with a month to two months to go. 2″ on Halloween, 7″ in Mid December, and 2″ from today. I am good with my snow prediction of above average if I can get 8-10″ between now and the end of winter I failed on the below normal temperatures though so far…

  • Avatar Michael Casteel says:

    Never saw any snow today up here in Maryville, Mo. just got the messy inch of sleet that welded to to frozen rain. I couldn’t even blade the stuff up with my Bobcat. Praying we get the 40 degree weather Monday and sunshine! Have a great weekend Bloggers! Go Chiefs!
    Michael

  • Avatar Grizzle says:

    Storm of the decade so far! 😜

  • Avatar Cody says:

    Perfect light snow for shoveling. I’d say Independence got a good 2-3 inches (eyeball estimates).

  • Avatar stjomoguy says:

    2 inches of snow brings my season total to 15 inches near St Joseph. Was without power for 16 hours due to freezing rain. No sleet but about .25 inches of ice

  • Avatar Michael Carriger says:

    4 inches in Ottawa. Slight glaze underneath. We missed the freezing rain, as the rain ended just around the time it hit the freezing mark.

  • Avatar Weatherby Tom says:

    Weird, getting some light snow here, with nothing on radar. Almost like snow mist, or snow grain

  • Avatar Hockeynut69 says:

    3.5” of snow after 1.5” of rain. Forecast verified in my area just north of Liberty. Now on to the next storm andGo Chiefs!!!

  • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

    1.5 inches 152 and Platte purchase awesome to see all the elements in one system. Good work Gary, think I have a very specific locale that missed that heavier snow. It was coming down good for about 30 mins here. Lost the big flakes after that. Was just over in Parkville and measured 3.5. Now the second system that’s left my specific spot fairly low on the snow totals

    • Avatar John says:

      I just have trouble understanding that total 2″ more to the west at the airport, which always seems to be low. 2″ more to the east less than 2 miles away. A really specific area within a small neighborhood I guess? I believe it because heavy bands of snow setup where they want, but it just seems like a specifically low total.

      • Avatar Garrett Osbourn says:

        Trust me it confuses me too and it’s why I end up asking dumb questions. This happened last system we had too. We had 3.5 inches in Gladstone while most surrounding had at least 4.5.

  • Avatar Andy Bussard says:

    More snow/ice next Friday and Saturday.

  • Avatar Alexander Pickman says:

    3” on the dot measured in my driveway here in Stewartsville, MO. A little surprising, but I was directly under a decent band of snow for some time. This brings my season total to 12”.

    Measurement pic is on my Facebook “Alex Pickman”