Good morning bloggers,
It is another fascinating weather morning over Kansas City. This time-lapse shows the stratus clouds that are just above the ground, and the cirrus clouds, around 25,000 feet above us that are associated with the tops of thunderstorms back over central Kansas:
This weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC. This severe weather outbreak, that just happened with the Derecho event two days ago, was spot on predicted by knowledge of this cycling pattern. This is the sixth LRC cycle, and it is now 6 for 6 on a significant severe weather event or outbreak all around two months apart. This is powerful evidence of the regularity to the LRC.
These cirrus clouds blew off from the complex of thunderstorms you can see below:
The complex over central and western Kansas was drifting east. There was another complex of thunderstorms over southern Arkansas, and a third one moving across Minnesota this morning.
It has been a pretty nice summer with no major heat waves over the USA. Here is a look at the forecast temperatures for around 1 PM central time today:
I am tracking that central Kansas disturbance, but it likely will turn east-southeast and weaken. Have a great day!
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Where is the disturbance the Powercast was showing at 10pm affecting NW Missouri this morning? Frankly its been horribly lately trying to watch models, at end of the day HRRR has been far away the most accurate. I am keen on the 18Z runs to go out 36 hours for what’s coming down the pike, its been way more reliable and isn’t really a second place right now as NAM 3K is just trash. Makes me wonder how accurate it is on the next little wave dropping down tonight, its been primarily modeled to be west of here, but can we trust that? With how bad they have been lately, Sunday a prime example, I will say that it WILL rain as 12Z HRRR is showing a good possibility right now. Its been the days that aren’t forecasted that actually produce, and then its vice versa when we are supposed to get a good rain it doesn’t come together like on Monday.
It’s spinning and moving into eastern KS now. With nothing in it.
Pretty pathetic. What I notice is these MCV’s track right through here and are dead spinning areas of clouds. Elsewhere, there are a few other MCV’s and they are now pulsing up with heat of the day and storms blowing up. What gives!?!?! Something is not right in this part of the country for widespread MCS activity, has been slightly off this entire convective season in my opinion. Its the season of western and central KS, I suppose they can always use the water out that way not mad at them. Its just odd how instead of rolling across KS like the often do into our part of the world, this LRC dictates that they die 80% of the time before they can. Usually I-35 corridor is where it starts to get wet, its the inverse this year as that’s where it cuts off and the MCS activity begins to wane. Most years I would get some monster MCS moving up from OK in May and June, not a single one this season! Northern MO has been an exception to this, they get everything to pan out.
Hey Gary, how are the rain chances looking tonight through tomorrow if there are any?
Not seeing any chance besides a very isolated thunderstorm. This will be for their few days.
Note: I don’t like to clog up the blog with “non weather” postings and apologize if this is not of interest to everyone.
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I miss the old blog.
The old blog became too toxic with all of the trolling.
We used to hear about things in advance, but now we just hear about things in arrears. As Midnight Oil would say, “Some things don’t come for free, some thing like the LRC”. Glad the LRC is 6 for 6, hope it saved lives. Gary, any opinion on the Nina’s for the upcoming winter? Does the LRC breakdown initiate from any longitude point and gradually convert, or is a simultaneous sweeping change? I would think there must be a singular change to begin with that initiates the whole dynamic.