Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with this strong cold front that is showing up on the models.  Per the LRC, there is one expected by around the end of this month, and here it is:

This is a pretty strong cold front for late August.  It is still on the day 10 to day 11 forecast map, and I have some confidence there it will be there around the end of the month, as our LRC model has a strong front around the very end of the month.

Look at this: Tropical Depression 13 has developed.  It will likely become yet another named weak storm.  They have mostly been rather weak systems this season:

All of these are forecast to struggle a bit.  Tropical Depression #13 is not forecast to intensify into a hurricane at the moment.  Hanna and Isaias are the only ones to form into weak hurricanes so far this season.  In the very bad hurricane seasons, the year Katrina hit for example, there were already major hurricanes by now.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog.  Let us know if you have any questions.


Gary Lezak

Author Gary Lezak

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Join the discussion 13 Comments

  • Terry Tice says:

    Gary is there any chance of mositure from one these storms affecting our area.

  • Urbanity says:

    I like the nose of that cold front diving further west this time, hope model is correct. A refreshingly cool fall would be great, might make the Big 10 wish they were playing football (panzies!)

    • Brian Watson says:

      Yeah it’s crazy. I’m a Huskers fan and hate to see them cancel their year. College football season won’t be the same even if half play now and half play in the spring. When did we get to be so weak?

    • Snow Miser says:

      I had a dream last night we got snow in September.

    • Snow Miser says:

      Oh yeah, and speaking of snow … there’s only 125 days until Christmas!!!

  • David McGuire says:

    They have upgraded 13 now and expect to reach hurricane strength. Landfall near Florida panhandle Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning

    • Gary Lezak says:

      The LRC favors the western Gulf system more than the eastern Gulf system. So, let’s see which one wins. They are awfully close together. The new Euro just came out and did not have the Florida system surviving. The GFS had it intensifying.

  • Trevor Anderson says:

    Is this front/timing one that has produced in previous cycles or just brought cooler air?

  • Hume Dude says:

    Gary – we haven’t had a lack of fronts….its been a lack of rain. Its one thing to call a more predictable cold front, but will it ever rain again? I feel like the drought pattern is finally expanding to where others are seeing what I was talking about since late May. The elongated ridge axis is just anchored here, fronts come and wash out, or have lacking moisture, or just have no forcing mechanism despite tons of moisture in the air. So something is wrong every time, like what typically happens in drought areas. My concern is that we are in morphing stages of LRC, and this is a taste of the next LRC pattern….. a very dry La Nina influenced one I fear.

    • Gary Lezak says:

      The fronts have all been ill defined. Even in the winter. The drought isn’t expanding, but we are in a dry spell now. Remember June? We are going through that part of the pattern and June was pretty dry. And, then we got hit by a few complexes of thunderstorms in July. I am expecting that again in September before the new LRC sets up.

  • Roger Stull says:

    The western U.S. is suffering mightily!

    Over 40% of the West is in at least severe drought (D2). Ouch!

    Hopefully, there isn’t a very strong La Nina coming.