The WPC this morning continues to suppest a mix of the ECMWF and EPS is best from coast to coast although confidence in guidance is only average for most of the nation and below average for the Plains, especially for this weekend.  CMC data is also being used in some locations as a mix for the NWS forecast.  Meanwhile, the GFS, NAM, and UKMET is being avoided for today’s forecasts through the next seven days.

In regards to the next seven days, this forecaster is continuing a mix of the ECMWF/EPS guidance which continues to remain steady and has the least volatility from run to run.  However, guidance continues to feature a 5 to 15-degree swing in high-temperature forecast beyond day 3 from model run to model run on average, due to the uncertainty of cloud cover, precipitation, and warm front boundary locations.

Steven DiMartino

Author Steven DiMartino

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