This morning, the WPC is using a model blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC guidance from coast to coast.  NAM guidance is not advised once again for four days straight.  The WPC is leaning away from the ECMWF in this blend, especially with the upper-level low and convective complex in the Tennessee River Valley for the middle of the week.  The WPC has average to above-average confidence in the forecast.  This model blend can be seen in the NWS/NDFD forecast data.

I continue to use a blend of the ECMWF, EPS, and HRRR guidance, which thus far has performed well in this weather pattern.  However, for the high-temperature forecast for Friday in the Mid Atlantic I am leaning more on the EPS rather than the ECMWF as high temperatures appear too high.  Confidence in the forecast is average to above average.

Steven DiMartino

Author Steven DiMartino

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