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Forecast Discussion & Highlights

By May 27, 2020 No Comments

Heat has been all the rage in Northern New England as of late. Burlington, Vermont crushed its May 27th record high of 91 when it clocked in at 95 this afternoon. Mid- 90s were common all the way to Northern NH (Berlin) & Western Maine (Fryeburg). Records fell from Massena and Saranac Lake, New York throughout Vermont. To see this utterly crazy heat in the Great North Woods is exceptional.

In any event, it’s update time!

We we last chatted, the warm temps in Boston were still questionable. Well, over the last few days, they’re still questionable – at least from the models’ perspective.

I’m thinking the models may be onto something – in terms of a slight cool down – just by the fact that the winds are due south. This transports cooler air from Buzzards Bay into the Greater Boston area. Compound that with the possibility of some downpours in Southeast Mass, and we have the makings of a 79 degree day. At that temperature, you can still make moola all the way to 81.

From one Logan Airport to another: sliding west to Billings, the heat is on for the weekend. Highs are still expected to peak Sunday, with Saturday holding back from 90:

In a perfect world, we could take the temps at face value – 85 Saturday, 90 Sunday. But these are models, and they simply (or maybe not-so-simply) simulate the atmosphere. A little fine-tuning is in order.

90% of the European Ensemble members spit out a high of 87 for Saturday (seems legit) and 94 for Sunday. The structure of this location on Sunday makes it possible to sit at 92 and make bread all the way to 94.

That’s a solid option to me.

Lastly, with the heat shifting to Denver later on Monday, the prospect of 90 once again rears its head. Here too, the Ensemble members all agree that it’s within reach:

The way this thing is running, it seems that plopping your money on 90 will keep you in the black through 94. Pretty “smaht” move in my book.

New Prospects in The Coming Days

No one’s in it (yet), but there are NO indications whatsoever that Boston will rise above 70 on Monday. In fact, based on the 850 rule (meteorological application for high temp forecasts) the maximum it could get with this setup is 63 (see the unseasonably cool temps in the graphic below). I’ll put my money on <71 (with an eye to 62 when everyone jumps in) for the day.

Warm air is flooding into Omaha on Tuesday. Look at those piping-hot temps in the mid-levels surging out of the Rockies:

That’s grounds for the upper 80s to near 90 in my book. Question is, will the SURFACE warm front make it east in time? It appears so. At this point, may be safer to side with 87/88, then ease up to the 90 mark later in the forecast.


Weather well,



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