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Forecast Discussion & Highlights

By June 2, 2020 No Comments

Tropical Storm Cristobal has everyone’s attention now. Especially with the sudden turn to the north late in the forecast period.


This puts Southern Louisiana and Eastern Texas on high alert for intense rain and possible borderline hurricane-force winds this weekend. And of course, this means we’re jockeying for positions for rain into Sunday for the likes of New Orleans and Houston.

Most positions for New Orleans on Sunday are at the low end of the spectrum. While it may be wise to take the “wait & see” approach, there are solid signs that at least 1″ of rain will fall proceeding the storm’s arrival. Below is the probability of seeing at least 1″ of rain through Sunday evening:

In contrast, Houston may simply see a few showers as they sit on the westernmost side of Cristobal (same prob. of 1″ of rain):

While positions are not yet fixed, there are some good signals for heavy rain in New Orleans and less rain in Houston…at least as of this typing. We all know how forecast tracks can change this far out.

So perhaps your fancying something more concrete? As in…. the Sunday & Monday morning low temperature in Boston?

Projections show the possibility of lows in the low 50s (54 for now) Sunday and upper 40s (49 for now) Monday. Wouldn’t be that unusual in this roller coaster pattern:

Similarly, New York City is in the same coolish boat. But the leading position there is for low temps of >61 on Monday morning?? Yeah, I don’t get it either.

We’re clearly in upper 50 degree territory here thanks to the cool shot on Sunday. That said, I wouldn’t go as far as the EC is suggesting – mid-50s. 58/59 both sound fine at this point.

Weather well,



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