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Forecast Discussion & Highlights

By June 5, 2020 No Comments

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Another cold shot moving into the West, another Southern Plains sizzler, and another cool down in the Northeast.

Those anomalies are between 20-30 deg below normal in the Great Basin!

So that begs the question…is Reno a good bet for cold Sunday?

Is the beach sandy? Are the Rockies rocky?

Forecasts are calling for lows to dip into the low 40s Sunday and perhaps as cold as the upper 30s for Monday. Both days appear to be positioned for a profit – provided you can at least pin down the low temp within a degree of the observed value. For Sunday, it’s been a moving target – mostly because of the wind. A gusty breeze should carry through Sunday morning, keeping the temp from reaching its full (cold) potential. It’s because of this that I’m aiming higher at 44/45 for a low temperature, even though guidance is showing 42/43. Sliding over to Monday morning, the conditions are ideal for radiational cooling to set in. Here’s where I’m going below guidance’s suggested retail price of 40. My forecast is for 38/39, BUT given the structure (interest) in this particular location, I believe setting it to 38 still allows you to make money to 37.

Guidance is bullish on the cold for both days

but the European typically goes overboard on these abnormally cool spells in the warm season.

We’re on a cold run, so let’s mosey on over to Billings for Tuesday morning. Another chilly one in the Rockies. Guidance suggests the 40s, but is it low, mid or high?

Judging by everyone’s selection, most are thinking high. Careful here. The high pressure system is directly overhead and barring any surprise cloudcover, we could be as cold as 42/43. That said, I’ll hug the mid-40s and settle for a low near 44/45 – which is really 45 since you can make green all the way to 42.

Have a safe, restful weekend.

Weather well,




Author WxRiskGlobal

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